2026 Property Market Predictions

The Australian property market has entered 2026 with a sense of renewed momentum. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent decision to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points in February, the fundamental drivers of our property landscape – limited supply, high migration and strong rental demand – remain incredibly resilient.

At Binnari Property, we believe that understanding the “macro” story is only half the battle. To truly find value, you must look at the “micro” trends shifting on the ground. To give you a clearer picture of the next 12 months, we’ve gathered exclusive commentary from leading agents in three of Australia’s most watched markets: Newcastle, the Gold Coast, and Melbourne.

Newcastle: The sub-$1 million surge

Newcastle continues to shed its image as a regional hub, maturing into a primary destination for both families and investors. Ryan Houston, Partner, Licensed Agent, Head of Projects at Presence Real Estate notes that the energy and confidence in the market, especially among investors, has shifted significantly compared to this time last year.

The buyer demographic: Demand is being driven by a surge of first-home buyers, both local and those relocating from major capitals in search of better lifestyle value.

Strongest segment: The “sweet spot” of the market is currently house and land packages priced under $1 million. These properties are flying off the market as they offer the perfect balance of affordability and long-term growth potential.

Softest segment: At the opposite end, the luxury market – specifically properties at $3 million and above – is notably softer. Buyers in this bracket have become highly selective, with many redirected toward coastal alternatives like the Gold Coast or Byron Bay.

Off-the-plan strength: Confidence is returning to new builds, with the off-the-plan market seeing its strongest activity in three years.

Market growth: Over the last 12 months, both houses and units have seen growth of 10% or more, particularly in the latter half of 2025.

The oversupply myth: Despite a pipeline of new apartments in areas like Wickham, high demand continues to outpace completions, keeping the market tight.

Gold Coast: The great wealth migration

The Gold Coast has evolved from a tourism-led market into a diversified economic powerhouse. Elle Anderson, Advisor and Negotiator at White Fox Gold Coast highlights that the market remains remarkably consistent with last year’s strong performance.

Steady growth: The market saw overall growth of approximately 12% last year, underpinned by continued migration from Brisbane (moving and weekenders), Sydney, Melbourne, New Zealand and others attracted to the coastal lifestyle.

The tightest segment: Properties priced below $2 million are seeing the highest competition and fastest turnover.

Softest segment: At the upper end of the market, things are still moving, but are taking longer.

Infrastructure as a driver: Preparation for the 2032 Olympics and major light rail extensions are accelerating long-term confidence.

Oversupply warnings: Investors should be cautious of cookie-cutter apartments in high-density areas like Broadbeach and Surfers Paradise, where stock levels are higher.

Melbourne: The rebound and recalibration

Melbourne currently offers some of the best relative value in Australia according to John Matthews, CEO at Matthews Agency, historically remaining the secondary market to Sydney. 

However, the city is navigating unique policy challenges, particularly Victoria’s land tax regime, which has deterred some traditional investors. 

There has been a shift in the local buyer profile, with owner-occupiers now making up 80% of the market compared to the historical 50/50 split.

Emerging Value: Despite tax pressures, interstate investors are increasingly identifying Melbourne as a “buy low” opportunity, especially with a state election approaching in November.

The First Home Buyer (FHB) Effect: A boost in FHB activity has helped the lower end of the market. Interestingly, this has led to a landlord exit as investors sell their properties directly to these new first-time buyers.

Strongest Segments: Villa units and townhouses under $950,000 are exceptionally strong. Additionally, there is high demand for houses up to $2.5 million, often driven by investors selling smaller assets to upgrade their Principal Place of Residence (PPOR).

What to Avoid: Modern or small apartments in buildings lacking quality are currently the weakest segment. Outer-fringe house and land estates and cookie cutter investor grade apartments remain susceptible to oversupply and can be prone to market busts.

Hotspot: Moonee Ponds (10km from CBD): With the new racetrack, improved amenities, and proximity to transport, it remains a top pick – ideally for houses with off-street parking.

Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs: A two-speed success story

The Eastern Suburbs market remains a unique ecosystem defined by high-intent buyers and a persistent scarcity of stock. Nathan Ryland, Sales Executive at Ray White Double Bay notes that the start of 2026 has been characterised by a highly active environment, balanced between buyers and sellers.

Enquiry levels: Interest has surged significantly, with enquiry levels up 30% compared to November and December 2025. While some of this is seasonal, it highlights a robust return of buyer appetite early in the year. Auctions are averaging about three bidders per property.

Resilience to rate hikes: Interestingly, the most recent RBA rate hike in February hasn’t dampened demand in this prestige pocket yet, as buyers remain focused on securing quality assets.

Supply vs confidence: Compared to 12 months ago, price points remain similar, but there is a palpable increase in overall market confidence. This is further supported by lower supply levels than this time last year, keeping competition steady.

Strongest segments: The ultra-premium market for properties valued at $20M – $30M+ remains a powerhouse of activity. Apartments up to $1.5M are seeing massive demand.

Weakest segment: The middle of the market – properties priced between $2M and $4M – is currently the softest, seeing less urgency than the entry-level or ultra-luxury brackets.

Supply constraints: Despite some new developments, there is no evidence of oversupply in the east; the fundamental constraint on new housing continues to support long-term values.

Brisbane: High demand and fast turnaround

Brisbane remains one of Australia’s strongest performers, according to Andy Flannagan, Licensed Real Estate Agent at Ray White Ascot, though buyers are becoming more selective as prices rise. 

The market is composed of 90% owner occupiers and 10% investors. Over 95% of homes are going to auction (15% sells prior to auction, 71% on the day and 10% after), with a rapid average of 28 days on market.

The Supply Squeeze: Supply is currently lower than 12 months ago, yet buyer activity hasn’t slowed. This has led to units and townhouses selling at a remarkably fast pace.

Strongest Segments: Anything under $1.1 million in the unit and townhouse sector is highly competitive. Much of this is fueled by the expanded FHB incentives, creating a butterfly effect that pushes prices up across the entire market.

Weakest Segments: Properties requiring extensive renovation are moving slowly due to the high cost and complexity of construction in the current climate.

Investment Strategy: The inner north remains the ideal investment zone, with a focus on detached houses. While interstate migration has slowed since the COVID-19 peak, internal demand within Queensland remains the primary driver.

Supply Trends: Unlike a decade ago, there is no current risk of unit oversupply in the inner city as demand for affordable housing continues to outstrip new completions.

The national fundamentals

While each city tells a different story, several national themes will define 2026:

Supply vs. demand: Australia’s housing supply is forecast to fall short of targets by roughly 30% over the next two years. This structural undersupply remains the primary floor beneath property prices.

The flight to quality: Expert commentary suggests that A-grade properties in well-serviced middle-ring suburbs are leading the charge, as buyers prioritize lifestyle and transport links over pure land size.

Rental tightness: With vacancy rates hovering around 1.1% nationally, rental growth is expected to stay high, supporting strong yields for investors even as borrowing costs fluctuate.

The $1.5 million threshold: While each market is moving independently, the $1.5m mark is now the defining boundary between high-demand entry-level stock and the more discretionary upsizer market nationally. With many First Home Buyer schemes now capped at this level, competition remains exceptionally high below $1.5 million, creating a high-velocity market segment driven by government incentives and borrowing limits.

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